Monday, August 17, 2009

Spencer's Monday Morning Good News 8-17-09

HASLETT, Mich. (Aug. 14) – Divine intervention? Or just plain luck? No matter what the circumstances, a Michigan church is $70,000 richer courtesy of a mystery giver and the Michigan Lottery. The Covenant Life Worship Center and its 25 members in Haslett, Mich. was given one of the second-prize tickets in the Lucky 7s raffle held May 4. The $10 ticket was purchased at a convenience store in Haslett, five miles northeast of downtown Lansing. The lottery Web site says the odds of a single ticket winning $70,000 in Lucky 7s are one in 55,556. Michigan Lottery officials say the church will receive the full amount of the prize because it is a tax-exempt group. An anonymous woman told WLIX-TV in Lansing that she dropped the ticket in the church collection plate after discovering it in her purse. After discovering that she had the winning number, she decided to offer the entire fortune to the church as a way of thanking the congregation for their support while she recovered from a head injury caused by an auto accident."I don't know where I'd be if it wasn't for all of them," she told WLIX-TV. "I might not have made it.Pastor Marilyn Parmelee tells the Lansing State Journal that the prize money will go toward the church building fund, setting up a missionary fund and supporting local community service projects. (Wow, that is heart warming good news eh? The world is not all about the economy or the car business......it is about people helping and loving people.)

Company sales numbers for July are in....what do you think?
GM Group 189,443
Toyota Group 174,872
Ford Group 165,279
Honda Group 114,690
Chrysler Group 88,900
Nissan Group 71,847
BMW Group 21,253

GM has been the media target for negativity, gone thru bankruptcy, had all their plants shut down, Senior managers grilled and fired, Dealers in mass confusion and shuttering.........YET THEY STILL ARE NUMBER 1. How can that be? Why does the media not say a word about that stamina and strength? Why do they not say anything about "they do produce cars that people want to buy". Maybe Americans do like American brands. Yeah for GM......way to go. Even though the media says nothing.........Congratulations for again leading the way.

"The cool guys always had the cool cars and that's what you try to emulate," said Joe Ramsey, 58, of Sterling Heights, a former GM designer who owns a 1932 Ford. "It's what you grew up with." There are some signs automakers aren't giving up on the influence of classic cars completely. There has been some convergence between the classic car culture and a more modern, technological, tuner-influenced brand, said Richard Shi, an American cultural historian who has studied car culture. This union is on display with the Chevrolet Volt, GM's electric vehicle slated to be released in 2010, which has a profile much closer to the Camaro than the comparatively mousey hybrid Toyota Prius."In some respects, the Volt is trying to be the best of both — the physical appearance of an American car but with the drive train of an increasingly eco-conscious public," said Shi, the president of Furman University in Greenville, S.C.Even if the glory days of muscle cars is waning, some, like 16-year-old Kevin Duby, are still buying into muscle car culture. Duby, of Livonia, spent four years of savings on his 1979 Camaro. And despite what his friends might value in a new car, the allure of a flashy ride is worth a heavy price."I would rather work two jobs to drive that than a Prius," he said. (Ya, now that's what I'm talking about.....American history, American ingenuity, American forever.)

From Greg Donaldson a Portfolio strategist: When we said that the stock market was turning in mid March of this year, cries of "Pollyanna" rang out. When we said that second quarter earnings were going to be better than expected --much better--cries of "you've got to be kidding me" landed all around us.It is now clear that the naysayers were wrong on both counts. I believe they were wrong because most people in and out of the investment business believe that whatever happens today is destined to happen forever. There are economic principles, however, that tell us that this linear thinking does not and has never worked. Investors simply mistake the power of the Federal Reserve over and over.If anyone doubts what I am saying, all you have to do is to look at the Tech boom of the late 1990s to see the evidence of the Fed's power. Booms and bubbles do carry the seeds of their own destruction, but the Tech bubble was popped by the Fed and any serious student of the markets and the economy knows it. They popped the Tech bubble by slowly raising interest rates until the overall economy slowed. This ultimately took the wind out of the Tech stocks' sails as their quarter-over-quarter earnings growth stopped and their stock prices collapsed.The consensus of pundits are now saying that for a variety of reasons, the economy and stock prices in 2010 and beyond will be sub-par. The biggest argument for this belief is that US consumers are tapped out and are being forced to become savers instead of spenders. This may or may not be true, but I have learned over the years that the consensus is almost always wrong. Thus, in my mind that means that either there will be no growth in 2010 and beyond, or growth will be much higher than most investors now are thinking.Of these two scenarios, I land on the higher-than-average growth view. That would mean that economic growth in 2010 will exceed the 80-year average of 3%. If that is the case, stocks will grow much faster than the 10% estimates that I regularly see for the year ahead.But that's not all. We Americans have a lot of trouble understanding that we now represent only about a third of world GDP growth. Europe, on a GDP basis, is slightly greater in economic size than we are. Surprisingly, several countries in Europe are reporting positive growth for this quarter, again, much better than expected.The other third of the world's economic growth comes from China, India and the other developing nations. The key thing here is China and India have cruised through this deep recession without ever reporting a negative quarter.S&P stated a few weeks ago that international sales of S&P 500 companies are now greater than 50% of total sales. The percentage of foreign earnings is even higher.Too many people have written off the US economy. I think they are wrong, and even if they are correct, foreign economies could lift S&P 500 company earnings to levels much higher than are now being forecast.My bottom line is that 2010 will be a much better year than most people think. There are many fundamental reasons for this belief, but the main reason I believe we are in for a surprise is because so many people are sure the economy will be lukewarm. Too many people have written off the US economy. I think they are wrong, and even if they are correct, foreign economies could lift S&P 500 company earnings to levels much higher than are now being forecast. My bottom line is that 2010 will be a much better year than most people think. There are many fundamental reasons for this belief, but the main reason I believe we are in for a surprise is because so many people are sure the economy will be lukewarm. (That's positive territory......spread the positive sentiment.)

Quotes for the day:

"Quality is remembered long after price is forgotten." "No one ever attains very eminent success by simply doing what is required; it is the amount and excellence of what is over and above the required, that determines the greatness of ultimate distinction."
-Charles Francis Adams.

Have a great day,
sy

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